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Mikhail Delyagin, Doctor of Economics Public director of Globalization Problem Institute

General theory of GLOBALIZATION

World for Russia: the way we need it and what we can do with it

(Analytical report open part in brief)

September 1998

Contents:

|Resume |2 | |I. Information technologies expansion |3 |

| | On difference significance in the technological time | | |speed | | |1.2. New resources for new technologies |9 | |1.3. Old technologies depreciation |10 | |II. Several consequences of markets GLOBALIZATION |12 | |2.1. Competition GLOBALIZATION monopolies GLOBALIZATION |12 | |2.2. Euro: suppression of threat and destructive egoism |13 | |!2.3. Financial competition |14 | | Technological process slowdown | | |III. Global regulation for global competition |17 | |3.1. What will unite the world into Economic UNO? |17 |

w6 | |3.3. Value of global regulation |18 |

About the author in brief

Delyagin, Mikhail Gennadjevich, born in 1968, Doctor of Economics.

From 1990 till 1993 expert of the B. Eltsyn Group of Experts, since 1994 leading analyst of the President of Russia Analytic Department, since 1996 referent of the President of Russia assistant. Since March 1997 advisor of the vice-prime-minister Minister of Internals, since June 1997 advisor of the first vice-prime-minister Mr. B. Nemtsov. On his leaving the government one day prior to August 17th, he established a Globalization Problem Institute. In the beginning of October 1998 after new government under Mr. Primakov had started its work, he was restored at the public service.

He has more than 300 publications (including in the USA, Germany, France, China, India, Egypt etc.), 4 monographs, with the latest - Economy of non-payments was republished for three times since 1996 till 1997.

Resume

1. Information technologies development has brought to:

. meta-technologies creation, application of which makes it impossible for the party which applies such technologies to compete with the developers of these technologies;

. reorientation of technologies from necessary material objects formation to necessary type of conscious and culture formation

(transformation from high-tech to high-hume);

. acceleration of information technologies development to such extent that short, theoretical investments are productive for the most advanced information technologies;

. approximate depreciation of traditional technologies;

. Information society creation in which money plays second role as compared with technologies.

. Major humanity technological development prospects:

. Exacerbation and compelling character acquisition by divultion between developed and backward countries, and also between developed countries and creating new technologies and the rest developed countries;

. Insulation of people engaged in information technologies into internal

information community, its concentration in the territory of the developed countries; slow concentration of the information community of the world and together with it concentration of the world progress in the most developed countries;

. progress termination beyond the developed countries; social and financial degradation of the developing countries;

. Possible abrupt slowdown of the progress in the result of global financial crises and destructive competition between the USA and

European Currency Union.

. Global monopolies formation is being performed:

. At global markets of separate financial instruments;

. In the course of these markets integration process (reduction of the

transformation value among them to negligible level) as information technologies advance in the form of the united global monopoly.

These processes will demand in the nearest future creation of the overnational regulation mechanism for global monopolies, which will be of more malaise character.

| The whole development of the humanity including in the field of | |economics is determined nowadays and will be determined in the | |nearest decade by progress to the new qualitative level with two | |fundamental processes simultaneously: new technologies development, | |information technologies primarily, and based on it quick competition| |GLOBALIZATION, primarily in the financial markets. |

!lvl0I. Information technologies expansion

1.1. Information technologies: money recedes into the background

Technological development has brought in the middle nineties to actual creation by the most advanced part of the humanity that very information community which has been widely discussed for the last decades and so that no one takes the matter seriously.

Realities of its functioning, casual connections and competitive potential by the reason of intellectual and technological gap can be hardly perceivable by those who are beyond of that process.

The most important way of showing this qualitative technological breakthrough which has lead to creation of the information society and at the same time one of its major parts is creation and quick distribution of the so-called meta-technologies.

Specifics of this type of technologies lies in that that the fact of thier implementation makes for the party which uses such technologies principially impossible to compete with the developer of these technologies in a serious level. This may be called a price for access to the effectiveness of a higher level which is provided by such technologies and which might be found in dealer and licensed systems. Modern advanced technologies in direct or indirect form place the user in the position of a licensee.

The most telling examples of meta-technologies are:

. Network computer: distribution of its memory in the net provides the developer with the whole information of the user and allows the developer to interfere into activity of the latter or even to control it (external control principle of the plugged in computer has bee already realized);

. Modern communication technologies which allow to wiretap all telephone messages all over the world; in the nearest future computer processing of the whole volume of these messages and also wiretap of all messages in the Internet will be possible;

. Different organization technologies; their main subgroups:

* Control technologies, including corporation activity organization: oriented to culture and value system of the country the developer, such technologies reduce competitiveness of the corporations which represent other cultures; we should also note that in general distribution within a society of a foreign types of culture which do not integrate with the culture of the society and as the result the culture which not only enriches it but remains detached from it, makes competitiveness of this society weaker;

* Formation of the mass conscious technology: permanent adaptation of the latter to the forms of influence arouses objective necessity in permanent renovation of the forms; without renovated technologies which at first appear in the leading country and then are distributed in other countries mass conscious of the society using technologies which influence it will get out of hand of the state.

Nowadays the said technologies have become predominating for their being the most productive. These technologies having sweepingly spread for the last years have already become a technological component of the information society: if we speak about it from the technological point of view we possibly half-consciously and non knowing about their peculiarities we intend first of all meta-technologies.

It is quite natural, that conscious transformation from creation of new technologies to their distribution and which is followed by creation of information society was expressed in the clearest form by the leader of this process Mr. W. Gates. He pointed out that the main factor for information technologies development as compared with the previous of 1997 year, lays not in their upgrading but in complex usage of already existing technical means for information transparency of all countries transparency as far as it can be understood quiet homogeneous for the countries creating meta-technologies and aiming at protection of their global competitive advantages.

But significance of information technology distribution is not limited by creation of meta-technologies and safe provision of psychological, intellectual and technological leadership of their creators. Besides provision of global information transparency the most important part of information technologies is the possibility (in 1999 it is still potential) for deep and quite free reconstruction of mass conscious.

The point is that unlike traditional material technologies the product of which are the goods, the product of information technologies nolens volens is a certain condition of the human conscious including mass conscious. Moreover: the most significant part of information technologies was primarily aimed at such reconstruction of human conscious taking it into consideration as the major purpose for influence.

It is more effective to influence conscious than to influence the material. Technologies connected with it have already received the name. They are called high-hume versus high-tech. In previous times technologies were oriented to matter but nowadays they are reorienting to the public conscience, public culture. Besides their high productivity, high-hume technologies differ with high changeability, i.e. maximum speed of making progress.

The pioneers of their exploration the USA engage the most mobile and in correspondingly the most effective form of financial capital venture capital to creation of the most effective type of information technologies. Engagement of such capital to creation of the ordinary technologies as it is may be shown by the experience of the developing countries is impossible because of slowness of the non-information technologies: performance of any project connected with such technologies demand for larger time period than traditionally short venture capital is ready to be invested.

In the result of it we observe destructive non-compliance of the speed of the venture capital turnover and establishment of traditional technologies. Wide-ranging investments of the venture capital are not effective for the national economy because of the said factors: it leaves without creating anything real and leaving after it only desolation.

But the speed of information technology development has a qualitative higher rank than ordinary technologies. That is why information technologies are the only type of technologies in respect of which short venture capital has a quite normal productivity. Their technological cycle is so small that it corresponds to the speed of the financial capital turnover.

That is why the American economy should not be afraid of distending a soap exchange bubble: it looks like a soap bubble only from outside. Actually the huge part of these venture investments is directed into the information technologies and at expense of their accelerated tempo of their development carries for their recipient quite normal productive but not venture character.

This is the principal advantage of the American economy over economics of other countries of the world. This is the reason for its medium term stability in the forthcoming global financial

|On difference significance in the technological time speed | |Significance of the time factor in new conditions is evidently | |demonstrated by the mass bankruptcy of computer firms in the USA. The| |bankruptcy is followed by the fact that implementation of new | |technological principles demands for such period of time that these | |principles become outdated. | |Thus, the company which directs a part of its resources from the | |sphere of technological race to the practical realization of new | |decisions reaches the slow scale of technological time and fails as| |compared with its competitors which remain in the zone of pure | |sphere of new ideas development in which the technological times | |changes in a quicker way. |

But application of high-hume technologies is connected also with danger. Thus, seeming easiness and impunity of conscious influence arouse the most dangerous professional illness of the employees engaged in the sphere of public relations it! is the temptation to solve problems not in the real way but with the help of the so-called brainwashing method or we may use more exact German analogue of this term: ote Seelenmassage.

The first problem of high-hume is connected with it: on carrying away by it the control system (of the state or of the corporation) starts the process of self-hypnosis that makes it inadequate. It is principally important: high-hume technologies are dangerous not only for the object of their influence, but for their user as they also transform conscious of the

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